Black Swan #1 -- Other GOP Candidates Attack Romney's Record at Bain Capital

In previous notes I expressed my opinion that Governor Romney is the candidate best equipped via finances and organizational skills to survive the GOP tontine, a/k/a the Republican Party's 2012 primaries and caucuses. Indeed, I was confident that the Governor's persistent tortoise would accumulate enough second place delegates together with a few first place wins that by the end of the last primary in June, he would be practicing the slow motion victory dance that would celebrate his formal nomination at the GOP convention in August.

But I had second thoughts after carefully reviewing the GOP's rules of engagement for its primaries and caucuses, rules that gave more than 25 percent of the selected delegates the freedom to vote as they pleased on the convention's first ballot. Substantial unpredictability provides an hospitable environment for the sudden emergence of "black swans" -- improbable events having high impact -- in this case, powerful unexpected challenges to the Governor's efforts to claim the nomination.

In my opinion, last week's surge of criticism of the Governor's sharp practices as one of the founding partners of Bain Capital, a private equity, from fellow candidates Speaker Romney and Governor Perry, was an unprecedented violation of President Reagan's so-called "Eleventh Commandment" -- Thou shalt not speak ill of other Republicans.  I submit that the violation was so intense as to qualify as the tontine's first black swan ... :-)