A. It's Hardly Begun, but It's Almost Over
In recent posts on this blog, I vented my resentment of the extraordinary power over the selection of the nominees of our major parties that has been assumed by the voters in the early primaries and caucuses in the underpopulated states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, a power that undermines our democratic republic by disenfranchising the voters in the other 47 states.
Be that as it may, I am now convinced that, barring the sudden arrival of a flock of powerful "black swans", Governor Romney's victories in the first two contests will assure his becoming the de facto GOP nominee by the time the polls close for the South Carolina primary next Saturday, January 21st. Indeed, a national poll published yesterday reported that most Republicans expect him to will win the nomination.
The Governor's organizational skills and his campaign's access to financial resources were head and shoulders above those of his rivals, without exception, and just about everybody knew this ... which is why just about everybody recognized that the Governor was best equipped to survive a prolonged season of primaries and caucuses ... which is why just about everybody recognized that the only way to defeat him would be to puncture his aura of inevitability by making him suffer punishing defeats in the early rounds.
But unfortunately for his opponents, there were too many of them, too many ultra conservatives, the legacy of the Tea Party's recent ascendancy. Hence the Governor was able to finesse his greatest liability, i. e., his undeniable record as a pragmatic moderate. Whereas the combined support that his opponents consistently received from likely GOP voters hovered around 75 percent, Governor Romney consistently received the undivided support of the remaining 25 percent in survey after survey last year and in the Iowa caucuses. His 40 percent high water mark in New Hampshire reflected the greater proportion of moderate GOP voters in that state plus the votes he received from moderate independents who were also permitted to vote; and he will undoubtedly receive his customary 25 percent or more in the upcoming South Carolina primary, where independents will once again be permitted to vote.
So what now? The first thing, for me personally, is to admit that Willard Mitt Romney is a very impressive fellow, so impressive that he would probably win in a landslide if voters only made their choices by comparing his personal achievements with those of President Obama prior to his becoming President. Indeed, if personal characteristics were the only criteria for selecting a president, I might consider voting for the Governor myself -- assuming that I could persuade myself to set aside my concerns about his ruthless behavior as CEO of Bain Capital. (Note: for highlights of his illustrious career, I refer the reader to the brief biography of Governor Romney published on Wikipedia.)
B. A Resurgent Tea Party
What kind of a president would Governor Romney be? This question cannot be answered without considering the probable Congressional context of a Romney presidency.
It seems likely that President Obama will face a resurgent Tea Party in the fall, a faction that was originally energized by its implacable opposition to everything he proposed in his first term because its members' strongest motivation was to prevent his winning a second term. But their visceral distrust of the Governor will ensure that they will redouble their commitment of time and money in the fall 2012 campaigns to also elect a far larger number of Congressmen and Senators who are sympathetic to their ideals. If the Governor proves to be as moderate a president as they fear, their greater numbers would ensure their capacity to override his vetos on important legislation.
There are more Democratic seats in both houses up for election than Republican seats, so there is a greater possibility that ultra conservative factions will gain more representatives. If so, we can anticipate legislative proposals that would be far more conservative than anything vetoed by President Obama, legislation that would begin with the repeal of the Obama health care plan; eviscerate our environmental protection regulations; impose the severest possible reductions in the budgets of the federal programs that provide the safety nets that protect minorities, the poor, the elderly, the very young, the mentally and physically disabled, and all of the other disadvantaged segments of our society; and the passage of additional tax reductions for the wealthiest tenth of one percent, thereby exacerbating the income gaps between the top tenth of one percent and everyone else and further reducing upward mobility for most of our children and grand children.
Those of us who were disappointed by President Obama's repeated betrayals of policies that we had elected him to defend would be agog as President Romney flip-flopped in repeated capitulations to the intransigent demands imposed by the expanded ultra conservative segments of his own party. Indeed, he would have few allies in the legislature because his election would have provided no "coat tails" that would bring in Congressmen and Senators who shared his moderate perspectives.
C. President Obama's Re-election is Mandatory
In summary, I could consider the possibility of voting for Governor Romney if I thought that the Democrats would gain solid control of both houses of Congress; but in the likely context of a resurgent Tea Party, the prospect of a Romney administration becomes an unthinkable nightmare.
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