Coherent strategies for managing the next phase of the pandemic

Last update: Thursday 8/11/22 

Regular readers of this blog know that its editor has struggled in recent notes to distinguish between a realistic view of the pandemic that emerges from the CDC's own data and the overview that emerges from the CDC's guidance. The realistic view is grim, but limited; the CDC view is more akin to the boundless melodrama of a reality TV show that surges from crisis to crisis. 

"Pandemic Survivor" -- Does anybody still watch that show?

Last update: Tuesday 7/26/22 

Is that show still on? Does anybody really watch it anymore? I haven't watched since last Christmas. Who are the main characters now? Remember way back in 2020 when  "Masks" and "Other Mitigations" were the good guys and we all tuned in every week to watch them flatten the curves?... "Masks" and "Other Mitigations" were pushed out in early 2021 by "Vaccines" and "Herd Immunity". When ratings began to sag, CDC Productions replaced them with bad guys, "Delta" and "Breakthroughs". Nobody like them, so CDC tried to bring back "Masks"and "Other Mitigations", which didn't work out. After Christmas they replaced "Delta" with "Omicron". He was supposed to be a good guy because he was less lethal than Delta, yet somehow he killed more people. I remember feeling confused and bored and suddenly noticed that I had gained 15 pounds from watching too much TV; so I decided to go out more and get more exercise and fresh air. That's when I learned that Netflix announced that it would cancel its contract with CDC Productions before the fall 2022 season began. Meanwhile, is anybody still watching the show?

A strategic approach to managing the U.S. COVID pandemic

Last update: Monday 7/25/22 

The Biden administration recently elevated an office within the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to the same level of responsibility as the FDA, CDC, and NIAID. Called the "Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR)", its name suggests that the elevated agency will provide the strategic perspective that has been missing from our previous pandemic management efforts. The editor of this blog has repeatedly criticized the Trump and Biden administrations for their failures to manage their efforts within a strategic framework. As consequence, both administrations fumbled and bumbled from surge to surge, and lost the support of America's majority. That's the bad news. The good news is that their inevitable failures make strategic planning a political possibility for the first time. Hopefully, a failed administration led by an infected elderly president will make the most of this opportunity.

Two pandemics -- real and fable

Last update: 7/25/22 

The editor offers the following personal anecdote as a specific example of an important pandemic management issue that will be discussed in subsequent sections of this blog note. A few days ago he was having brunch with his daughter and his 8 year old granddaughter at an upscale restaurant. Outside or inside? It suddenly looked like it was about to rain, so he grumbled his OK to eat inside. He knew from pre-pandemic experience that this relatively new restaurant had excellent ventilation and high ceilings, so ... OK ... OK. But after two or three steps inside, everything was not OK.

Our pandemic of the elderly -- dead unvaccinated, dead vaccinated, and dead boosted

Last update: Thursday 7/21/22 

The long table in this blog note demonstrates two points: (1) Super majority percentages of the deaths from coronavirus variants in the U.S. have been inflicted on our nation's oldest residents, i.e., age 65+. Although older residents are less than 20 percent of the U.S. population, they experience more than 70 percent of COVID deaths; (2) This disproportionate share of deaths is growing even larger under Omicron and its sub-variants. 

Has President Biden been infected by Omicron yet? Yes, on 7/21/22

Last update: 7/21/22 

In January 2022, Dr. Fauci predicted that sooner or later just about everyone would become infected by Omicron, a prediction that came true for the good doctor himself in mid-June 2022. Readers may recall that the 81 year old infectious disease expert had previously declined to attend the infamous White House Correspondents Association gala in May 2022 because of concern for his "personal risk", a gala that our 79 year old president did attend, wearing no mask while standing close to lots of other attendees, some of whom tested positive in the days after the gala. 

Risk averse vulnerables and those who shield them

Last update: Saturday 7/9/22 

This note calls our readers' attention to a recent article (whose link was provided by Reddit) that discusses the mental stress suffered by risk averse vulnerable persons -- e.g., elderly, immunocompromised, diabetics -- who continue to maintain high levels of mediation during our current transition to "normal living". Of particular importance is the finding from the author's research that persons responsible for "shielding" the vulnerable -- e.g., their  spouses, adult children, guardians -- may suffer more stress than the vulnerable persons they are protecting. 

Why do we vaccinate?

Last update: Tuesday 7/5/22 

Why do we vaccinate? Our reasons have shifted over the course of the pandemic. But before there were COVID vaccines, we mitigated. Remember that?  Throughout the last year of the Trump administration, we all wore masks and kept social distances from each other ... Well most of us did ... most of the time. We mitigated in order to reduce the speed with which the coronavirus spread throughout our communities. 

Florida's Governor Ron DeSantis: COVID Rebel or Pioneer??? (Part B)

Last update: Sunday 7/3/22 

This blog note is the second of a two part analysis of the controversial pandemic management strategy employed by Florida's governor Ron DeSantis, a well educated man with  White House ambitions. The governor relied on one tool to manage the pandemic in his state: extensive, but voluntary vaccination of his state's senior residents, age 65 and above. He vehemently rejected all mandates, e.g., masks, moving classes online, as well as mandates for vaccinations.