DARPA -- America's reliable source of game changing technology

Last update: Monday 3/9/26 10:45am

DARPA identifies technologies that have dual use, then engages leading experts in our universities and other research institutions as consultants and/or contractors in a cluster of interrelated component projects, each of which develops selected aspects of the needed new technology. DARPA also alerts some production companies of its new tech from time to time and obtains their input as to how the new tech could be enhanced to achieve greater commercial success.

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Introduction | 1. Buying Time | 2. Game Changer

Introduction

This installment has two sections. The first section suggests that we keep on doing what we have been doing so as not to signal the game changers that DARPA will be developing. The secod section describes the game changers. 

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1. Buying time

We want to win, so we want to start playing games that we can win. But moving from China's game to our own game requires winning a transition game. Here's a draft of actions that should be taken during the five years between now and the start of our new game.

a) Keep on buying China's REE-based exports.
In mid-2025 when President Trump informed China that he would impose a 500% tariff on everything they shipped to the U.S., China countered by blocking sale to the U.S. of all REE's and products based on REEs. President Trump immediately called for a truce; China agreed. No 500 % tariffs and continued sales of REE products to the U.S.

Contrary to President Obama's misconception, China can not extract OPEC level income from the tiny sales of its REEs, even at 10, 20 or 50 times their usual price; nor do they really want to shut us down.

China's real long term strategy is to attract multi-billion dollar U.S. and other foreign investments into the production of high performing tech products that yield hundred billion dollar annual export sales to the U.S. and to other countries. If they block sales of REE based products to the U,.S., they drive us into recession and thereby lose billion dollar investments and hundred billion dollar export sales.

b) Buy as much REE magnetic material from China for U.S. stockpiles as they will sell to us.
China will probably refuse to sell us anything for stockpiles, but we have to ask ... but perhaps an 'interesting' deal might be struck.

c) Continue our pursuit of ores from Greenland, especially the heavy REE ores that are the primary inputs for creating magnets 
It is highly unlikely that we will be able to extract significant shipments of REE ores from our Tanbreez mine in Greenland within the next five years because there's no infrastructure in place at the needed scale: electric power, roads, shipping ports. But nothing is absolutely certain ... and our possession of the heavy REE ores in this mine keeps them out of China's supply lines ... but the mine might provide the basis for a 'interesting' high stakes deal with China, so interesting and for such high stakes that the editor of this blog will publish it in a separate note ... 😎

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2. Game Changer ... Bringing down the walls of Jericho
Up until this point our discussion has only discussed the development of a non-REE magnetic material that is as powerful as the REE magnetic material that is most widely used today and is the one most dominated by China. 

But a lot of important components and subassemblies in the defense and civilian sectors do not require the most powerful magnets. We must remember that our fundamental objective is to demolish China’s chokehold on our trillion dollar millitary and civilian sectors. As will be described in a subsequent installment, China’s rare earth ecosystem is as formidable as were the walls of Jericho in the Old Testament. It took seven priests blowing their seven trumpets for seven days to bring down Jericho‘s walls. 

It would be prudent for us hedge our bets. DARPA should develop a variety of game changers. We will then be luckier than the ancient priests because we will be able to break China’s chokehold if only some of DARPA's game changers are effective. DARPA’s circus must therefore have more than one ring. It should have three, four, or even five rings

But to minimize the complexity of this discussion, we will continue to refer to one game changing material, one that includes no rare earths. However, the Appendix to this note contains links to a few papers that describe a variety of alternative approaches to magnet development, e.g., using light REEs. DARPA might consider one or more of these alternatives in its circus rings 

In other words, this project should be run on the scale of the Manhattan Project in World War II. It should be one of the most expensive and most complex developments that DARPA has ever undertaken.… 😎

a) Defense Production Act
U.S. President invokes the Defense Production Act to authorize the following emergency actions

— Designate non-REE magnetic materials as part of the defense industrial base

— Allocate sufficient funds for the development of non-REE production processes and the construction of non-REE production facilities.

b) U.S. President deploys DARPA

The President tasks DARPA to develop non-toxic, cost effective production processes that yield powerful magnets without REE materials.

c) Game changing innovations

DARPA will work its usual magic by coordinating the development of the new technologies within two years by engaging the best experts from our universities and research institutes in multiple interrelated aresearch and development projects.

d) Two GOCO Contractors

DARPA will then select two highly qualified materials manufacturers to become GOCOs 

-- As usual when national emergencies are declared, the selected manufacturers will not receive patents; they will receive Contracts to Operate production facilities that are Government Owned ... GOCO = Government Owned, Contractor Operated.

-- The contractors will build the GOCO facilities within one year with government financing.

-- The contractors will hire experienced staff to run the GOCO facilities; government funding will also cover salaries, benefits, and corporate fees for services.

--- If a contractor fails to construct the required production facilities within one year, its contract will be cancelled; another contractor will be selected.

-- Each contractor will be required to produce enough magnets to satisfy at least 1/8 of the needs of all federal agencies by the end of the second year. 
 
-- If a contractor fails to satisfy at least 1/8 of the need for magnets for all federal agencies by the end of its second year, its contract will be cancelled; another contractor will be selected.

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e) Only GOCOs 

The U.S. President requires all government contractors to use magnets produced by the GOCO; all purchases from China and other sources should cease.

f) Open source

If this Manhattan Project achieves its fundamental objective within ten years — breaking China’s rare earth chokehold on the world’s high tech civilian and military sectors — the national emergency will be over and DARPA will make all of its successful new game changing technologies open source by publishing their specifications on the Internet.

— GOCO facilities will be auctioned off to the highest bidders.

— Former GOCO contractors will enjoy strong competitive market advantages because of their multiple years of hands-on experience working with these now open source technologies.

g) No restrictions on private companies
Private U.S. companies will continue to buy magnets from China if they choose to do so. There will face no tariffs, sanctions, or other penalties.

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APPENDIX -- Links to promising alternatives to China's rare earth magnets

• Ames Lab — microstructure engineering breakthrough
  https://www.ameslab.gov/news/improving-rare-earth-free-magnets-through-microstructure-engineering
  
  
• Rare Earth Exchanges — MnBi comprehensivereview
  https://rareearthexchanges.com/news/mnbi-magnets-make-a-comeback-new-review-charts-rare-earth-free-alternative-but-challenges-loom-large/
  
  
• ScienceDirect — MnAl and MnBi review
  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304885325004196

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