Winning a Pyrrhic victory by mismanaging our total war against the coronavirus

Last update: Monday 3/1/21

Wars are won by generalists, not specialists; the highest ranking warriors are usually called "generals". This is true for all wars, but it is especially true for total wars wherein large segments of the population are at risk. Generals have to understand the "big picture".

Of course no general can be an expert in all aspects of a complex military campaign, so generals are usually surrounded by a phalanx of aides whose collective expertise covers all of the relevant specializations. Furthermore, America's top generals report to a civilian Secretary of Defense, another generalist, who is surrounded by a phalanx of civilian specialists who ensure that the impact of our war efforts on all aspects of our society -- e.g., economic, political, social, and psychological -- are considered when making important decisions, especially in total wars.

Early 2020 witnessed the sudden appearance of a different kind of enemy that put large segments of our population at risk. Our total war to subdue the coronavirus would impose far more painful restrictions on our freedoms than were imposed on our civilian population during World War II, our last total war, and would result in far more American deaths than were suffered by our service men and women on the battlefields and in the naval battles of World War II.

Question: Which generalists were selected as the "generals" who would be mindful of the "big picture" in their management of our total war against the coronavirus? 

Answer: No generalists were selected. President Trump appointed a task force of health care specialists, none of whom had any prior experience in managing a highly disruptive pandemic.  It came as no surprise when the doctors determined that saving the most lives was their primary goal, a narrow and profoundly unwise goal for a total war. Nations are deeply transformed by total wars -- e.g., the American Revolution, the Civil War, World War I, and World War II. These kinds of wars must be waged within a framework of complex, sometimes conflicting objectives whose purpose is to ensure that when the war is over most citizens will feel that the extensive efforts required to win the war were worth the costs, where costs are measured along many dimensions. (Readers are referred to the following notes on this blog that identify other specializations that should have been represented on a task force headed by appropriately experienced generalists.)

•  "We need a different kind of coronavirus task force", Last update: 11/28/20
• "COVID-19 as preparation for climate change", Last update: 12/27/20

Trump's task force of health care specialists gave the economic, political, social, and psychological implications of their recommendations little or no consideration. Indeed, they seemed to be deeply offended when anyone questioned their judgements, often accusing their challengers of politicizing the pandemic or being anti-science. Their most significant challenges came from governors and mayors, elected generalists whose responsibilities require that they be ever mindful of the "big picture". Governors and mayors who fail to consider a wide range of implications of their decisions will be bombarded with loud complaints from constituents whose lives have been adversely affected by the unanticipated consequences of these decisions. 

The development of effective vaccines leaves no doubt that we will win this war, just as the development of the atomic bomb left no doubt that we would prevail in World War II. No one ever doubted that we would win; the only questions were how long it would take and at what costs. It seems highly unlikely that most Americans will regard our efforts to win this war as worth the costs. Trump's task force pursued profoundly unwise goals, so our victory will be profoundly Pyrrhic. 

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Related posts on this blog:

• "The coming uneven, messy, confusing end of the COVID pandemic", Last update: 2/27/21
  
  
• "Winning and losing pandemic wars",  Last update: 2/24/21
  
  
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• "Where do we go from here?", Last update: 10/30/20