National COVID statistics can frame dangerous national goals

 Last update: Wednesday 6/23/21

Editor's comment: Previous notes on this blog highlighted crucial flaws in President Trump's pandemic management. Unfortunately, some of these flaws now enjoy new life under President Biden. Case in point: the president's vaccination goal that at least 70 percent of the U.S. adult population become vaccinated by July 4th.

In early May 2021, National Public Radio reported that President Biden had set a national vaccination goal:

• "Biden Sets New Goal: At Least 70% Of Adults Given 1 Vaccine Dose By July 4", Alana Wise, NPR, 5/4/2

Two months later, the Washington Post  and NY Times reported that the president's goal seemed to be in jeopardy:

• "Vaccination rates fall off, imperiling Biden’s July Fourth goal", Dan Diamond, Dan Keating and Chris Moody, Washington Post, 6/6/21
• "With Vaccination Goal in Doubt, Biden Warns of Variant’s Threat", Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Noah Weiland, NY Times, 6/18/21
  
  
• White House Says U.S. Is Not Expected to Meet Vaccination Goal, NY Times, 6/22/21 ... video, loads slowly

Should we be concerned that President Biden's goal is out of reach? Not really. It was a meaningless goal and the president should be angered that he was persuaded, probably by the CDC, to formulate such an important national goal in such a wrong-headed manner, i.e., by measuring success (or failure) via a national statistic. In so doing, he converted an opportunity for triumph into an unforced blunder. The CDC is the most likely adviser in this case because the CDC has committed this same kind of blunder again and again throughout the pandemic. 

COVID spreads among the members of local clusters of people who encounter each other in neighborhoods, workplaces, and entertainment venues. Being a local phenomenon its spread and the measures taken to prevent its spread are best measured by local statistics because large differences in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths will occur between between states. 

On the other hand, as the nation attempts to end the pandemic via vaccinations, there will be large differences between vaccination rates and resulting percentages of the population that has been vaccinated from one state to another because of large differences in demographics, population densities, culture, politics, and other factors. Once again the appropriate statistics for vaccinations will be the percentages of vaccinated residents of states, not national percentages.

National averages and percentages as misleading indicators

Let's illustrate this point with a simple hypothetical. Suppose Jeff Bezos, Amazon's biggest shareholder who is now reported to be worth over $300 billion, got into a cab with two homeless people who have zero net worth. Further suppose that an astute reporter for a cable news network calculates the average net worth of the passengers in the cab to be $300 billion divided by 3 = $100 billion. The $100 billion calculation would be correct, but the result would be foolish. Arithmetic averages of positive numbers yield misleading results when the separate values in the calculations are widely dispersed because the biggest values will dominate the results.

Turning now to the president's national vaccination percentage, we encounter the same kind of problem wherein a national percentage does not reflect wide local variations.

• When we look at vaccination data at the state level, we find wide variations from one state to the next in the percentage of people who are vaccinated. We also find wide variations in the total number of people who live in each state. So we find wide variations in the total number of people who are vaccinated in each state.
  
  
• Calculating a national percentage of vaccinations by adding up all of the vaccinated people in every state, then dividing by the total number of people in all states will yield a percentage that will be heavily influenced by the percentage of people who are vaccinated in the states with the biggest populations. 
  
  
• As it happens, most of the states with the largest populations also have the  highest percentage of vaccinated people. This means that a national average would be a dangerously misleading measure for people in states with small populations and low vaccination rates.

Percentage of adults with at least one vaccination
The following data about the percentage of adults receiving at least one dose of a vaccination was copied from the CDC vaccination Website on 6/21/21 using a recent Chrome browser by selecting the following options:

   View = "People",
   Show = "At Least One Dose",
   Metric = "% of Population", and
   "Population >= 18 Years"

Hovering over a state on the data map will display the data. Some of these options were not available via Firefox or Safari.

• Percent of entire U.S. over 18 reciving at least one vaccination = 65.4%
  
  
• At least 70% = 17 states + District of Columbia 
  California (73%), New York (70.9%), Pennsylvania (74.4%), New Jersey (77%), Virginia (70%), Massachusetts (81%), Maine (77%), Vermont (84%), New Hampshire (72%), Connecticut (78%), Maryland (73%), Rhode Island (75%), Illinois (70%), District of Columbia (71%), Washington (72%), New Mexico (74%), Hawaii (83%)

• At least 60% = 16 states + Puerto Rico
  Oregon (69%), Minnesota (69%), Colorado (69%), Delaware (69%), Wisconsin (65%), Florida (63%), Utah (63%), Texas (60%), Puerto Rico (64%), Arizona (60%), Utah (63%), Kentucky (61%), Kansas (61%), Nebraska(63%), South Dakota (63%), Iowa (63), Michigan (62%), 

• At least 50% = 13 states
  Montana (58%), Oklahoma (56%), Missouri (55%), Tennessee (51%), North Carolina (55%), South Carolina (53%), Georgia (53%), Arkansas (51%), Indiana (55%), Ohio (59%), West Virginia (51%), North Dakota (55%), Idaho (52%), 

• Less than 50% = 4 states +  Virgin Islands
  Louisiana (48%), Mississippi (45%), Alabama (49%), Wyoming (49%), Virgin Islands (48%) 

Regional patterns

• Only 21 states were above the national average of 65.4%; 29 states were below this average.
  
  
• Most of the 17 states that vaccinated at least 70% fell into two clusters: states on the West Coast and states in the densely populated Northeast corridor on the East Coast. As described by the following article in the NY Times, the governors of the most populous states on each coast celebrated the achievement of this benchmark -- "‘A Momentous Day’: New York and California Lift Most Virus Restrictions", Luis Ferré-Sadurní and Shawn Hubler, NY Times, 6/15/21
  
  
• Three of the 4 states that vaccinated less than 50% were in the South, in the core of the so-called "Black Belt" -- Luisiana (48%), Mississippi (45%) and Alabama (49%). Only two Southern states vaccinated more than 55%: Florida (63%) and Texas (60%). The South's low vaccination rates were discussed in the following NY Times article --"Despite Ample Shots and Incentives, Vaccine Rates Lag Far Behind in the South", Rick Rojas and Mitch Smith, NY Times, 6/9/21.
  
  
• These large differences between the high vaccination percentages in the coastal states and the much lower percentages in the South did not appear overnight. They have been foreseeable since the first days of the Biden administration in January 2020 in the large differences between the vaccination rates of these regions. Framing a national vaccination goal in terms of an overall national vaccination level was foolish and dangerous. The Biden administration and its CDC should have encouraged all residents of the least vaccinated states to keep on wearing masks and maintaining social distancing regardless of whether they were or were not vaccinated.

Appropriate vaccination goals

How should president Biden have framed his national vaccination goals? Here's one suggestion:

• By July 4th at least 40 percent of all 50 states, i.e., 20 states plus Washington DC, will have administered at least one dose of a vaccine to all of its adult residents, i.e., 18 and over
  
  
• By Labor Day in September another 30 percent of all 50 states, i.e.,15 states plus Puerto Rico, will have administered at least one dose of a vaccine to all of its adult residents, i.e., 18 and over.
  
  
• By the last day in December, the last 30 percent of all 50 states, i.e., 15 states plus all other U.S. territories, will have administered at least one dose of a vaccine to all of its adult residents, i.e., 18 and over.
  
  
• From now until December 31st, the federal government will do whatever is necessary to assist states that have achieved the 70% goal to vaccinate even higher percentages of their adult populations.
  
  
• From now until December 31st, the Biden administration and its CDC will encourage all residents of states that have not vaccinated at least 60 percent of their adult population to keep on wearing masks and maintaining social distancing regardless of whether they themselves have or have not been vaccinated.
  
  
• From now until December 31st, the federal government will do whatever is necessary to help all states to persuade vaccine hesitant residents to become vaccinated, and to help all states assist residents who want to be vaccinated but encounter insurmountable challenges, e.g., personal immobility, lack of transportation, conflicts with required working hours, etc. The federal government will also make every effort to help states ensure that Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities are not underrepresented in the vaccinated segments of each state's adult population.
  
  
• By January 1, 2022 all states and U.S. territories will return to normal operations. Happy New Year!!!

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Related notes on this blog:

• "An open letter to President Biden regarding the critical need to reorganize the CDC immediately", Last updated: 6/5/21