Friday, July 16, 2021

The pandemic is almost over according to our major media, but for whom?

Last update: Sunday 7/18/21
The coverage of the pandemic by major media is down to a small fraction of what it was just a few months ago, this being their not too subtle declaration that the pandemic is almost over so they have more important news to cover. Yes, it's almost over for most of us, but by no means all of us. The percentage of the U.S. adult population that was received at least one dose of vaccine was about 68% on 7/16/21 according to the CDC, leaving about one third of our population unvaccinated.


COVID is a local disease, so national rates and percentages for infections or vaccinations can be dangerously misleading if you live or work or entertain in communities that have infection percentages that are much higher than the national infection and/or vaccination percentages. We should continue to be mindful of the vaccination levels in our local communities, especially if we have unvaccinated children or unvaccinated elderly relatives in our households. 

Even state level statistics can be misleading for states that contain communities wherein percentages vary widely across counties or even neighborhoods. Case in point: California. Just a few weeks ago, California celebrated its achievement of a 70 percent level of their adults obtaining at least one shot of vaccine; California celebrated this achievement by discarding most of its social mitigation restrictions, e.g., masks and social distancing. 
  • "‘A Momentous Day’: New York and California Lift Most Virus Restrictions", Luis Ferré-Sadurní and Shawn Hubler, NY Times, 6/15/21
But one month later on 7/15/21, Los Angeles County (population about 10 million) reimposed its previous requirement that everyone wear masks indoors, even if they are vaccinated. It did so because of a surge in infections after the July 4th holiday among its many unvaccinated residents.
  • "Los Angeles County reimposes indoor mask mandate for all as coronavirus cases rise nationwide", Fenit Nirappil, Washington Post7/15/21

Here's a pop quiz for the reader; two questions, the same answer will be correct for both questions, but first some background data:
  • According to the CDC, as of 7/16/21 the percentage of all California adults receiving at least one shot of vaccine was 76%;

  • According to the CDC, the percentage of the 5.6 million Los Angeles County adults who had received at least one shot was 72%, i.e., about 4.0 million, so the percentage who had received no vaccinations was 28%, i.e., about 1.6 million people. As is usual for these kinds of shortfalls, a disproportionate share of this unvaccinated 1.6 million was Black or Hispanic.

Now for the quiz:
  1. Should anyone have been surprised that there was a surge in positive tests for COVID infections among the 1.6 million unvaccinated residents of Los Angeles after the July 4th holiday?

  2. Should the residents of Los Angeles in Black or Hispanic neighborhoods have tossed their masks aside just before the holiday?
For those of you who got the second question wrong, here's a make-up question: Why should people who are vaccinated wear masks indoors when they are in low vaccination communities?

Best answer: If all of the savvy vaccinated folk in low vaccination communities wear masks while indoors, their masks will provide lots of very visible reminders to the unvaccinated that the pandemic is not over in these communities, no matter what the media say or don't say. Therefore, unvaccinated members of these communities should continue to wear masks, wash their hands frequently, maintain social distancing, avoid large groups, etc, etc, etc ... and, most importantly, become vaccinated as soon as possible.

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