From one pandemic to two overlapping endemics

 Last update: Wednesday 3/10/22

It now appears that our pandemic might end in two overlapping endemics: The first will be an endemic among the unvaccinated members of our society. Its worst consequences will be surges in hospitalizations and deaths, but not as large as the surges that occurred during the pandemic. This endemic will be the stuff of headlines in all media.

The second will be an endemic among the vaccinated. The vast majority of the breakthrough cases in this endemic will be asymptomatic or only experience mild symptoms, with few hospitalizations and even fewer deaths. This endemic will go largely unreported by our media because we are grossly undercounting breakthrough cases at the state and national levels. Its worst consequence may be its provision of opportunities for the virus to evolve variants that are immune to our vaccines and boosters, opportunities that will be provided by vaccinated persons abandoning masks and distancing.

-- "The coronavirus is still mutating. But will that matter? ‘We need to keep the respect for this virus.’", Joel Achenbach, Ben Guarino and Aaron Steckelberg, Washington Post, 10/25/21 

The breakthrough endemic and the unvaccinated endemic will overlap because persons who become infected, whether vaccinated or unvaccinated, can infect other vaccinated or unvaccinated persons.

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Related notes on this blog:

• "Acceptable costs of living with the virus", Last update: 10/24/21
  
  
• "Prior Infection Is Little Defense Against Virus Variant, Scientists Say", Lynsey Chutel and Richard Pérez-Peña, NY Times, 12/2/21 
  
  
• "Most Covid Infections May Soon Be Breakthroughs. Here’s What That Means.", Eleanor Cummins, NY Times, 12/19/21
  
  
• "Omicron will infect ‘just about everybody,’ Fauci says", Andrew Jeong and Ellen Francis, Washington Post, 1/12/22