deltaCOVID19

Last update: Wednesday 12/8/21
This edition of our guide provides an evolving framework for coping with the "Delta vs. Mandates and Vaccines" phase of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S.  from July 2021 through October 2021

(The last update of the previous edition that covered the surge in vaccinations during the first six months of the Biden administration can be found on our vacCOVID-19 page. The last update of our first edition that covered February 2020 through early December 2020 can be found on our oldCOVID-19 page.) Alerts about top stories are posted on the blog's @neoskeptics Twitter account on Sundays and Mondays; updates are posted throughout the week.

... under continuing reconstruction ...

Top stories
  • "Pfizer says blood samples from people who got three of its doses show robust antibody levels against Omicron.", NY Times, 12/8/21 *** 
  •  "We answer four big questions about Omicron.", David Leonhardt,  NY Times, 12/7/21 *** 
  • "Omicron Is Fast Moving, but Perhaps Less Severe, Early Reports Suggest", Lynsey Chutel, Richard Pérez-Peña and Emily Anthes, NY Times, 12/6/21 ***

The ten sections of the framework are divided into two groups: Dashboard and Publications.

Dashboard (sections A, B, and C) contains links to data pages on the Web that include the tables, maps, and charts most frequently cited by the publications in the second part of the guide. Readers who encounter references to COVID-19 data in a publication can quickly confirm (or refute) the citations by clicking appropriate links in the dashboard to the sources of the data.

Publications (sections D through J) contains links to reports, news articles, and opinions.  New links are added every day. Recent links are red; older links are blue. Most of the links in the dashboard sections are always red because they point to Web pages that are updated frequently by their editors, sometimes every day. Older items in the publication sections whose content has been overcome by events are deleted. This enables the overall size of the publications sections to remain more or less the same as newer links are added. However enough older articles remain so that readers can always get a quick sense of where we are and how we got here by skimming the titles of the articles in chronological order.

A. Info | B. Mods | C. Trackers | D. World | E. U.S response | F. Context | G. Mandates | H. TreatVax | I. Opinions | J. Hindsight

... Dashboard ... 

A. Comprehensive information resources 
B. Medical impact models
  • Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluaton (IHME) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), COVID-19, 11/17/21 ... Editor's note:  IHME displays "reported deaths" and "excess deaths" since early May 2021. IHME excess deaths from COVID for every country are higher than reported deaths, about 50 percent higher for the U.S. This methodology explained HERE
  • Midas, COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub
C. Focused Trackers ... Infections, Hospitalizations, Deaths, & Vaccines

... Publications ...

D. Exit strategies from the pandemic outside the U.S.
  • Africa, "Africa’s Covid Crisis Deepens, but Vaccines Are Still Far Off", Abdi Latif Dahir and Josh Holder, NY Times, 7/16/21
  • Great Britain, "Opening Its Economy as Delta Variant Surges, the U.K. Becomes a Covid-19 Test Case", Jason Douglas, Wall Street Journal, 7/21/21
  • Israel, "Israeli Data Suggests Possible Waning in Effectiveness of Pfizer Vaccine", Carl Zimmer, NY Times, 7/23/21
  • Europe, "How Europe, After a Fumbling Start, Overtook the U.S. in Vaccination", Elian Peltier and Josh Holder, NY Times, 7/29/21      
  • Great Britain,  "Britons, Unfazed by High Covid Rates, Weigh Their ‘Price of Freedom’", Mark Landler and Stephen Castle, NY Times, 8/28/21    
  • South America, "Covid Ravaged South America. Then Came a Sharp Drop in Infections.", Ernesto Londoño, Daniel Politi and Flávia Milhorance, NY Times, 9/5/21 
  • Australia, "Covid Zero Is No Longer Working for Australia", Edward Cliff and Brian Fernandes, NY Times, 9/8/21 
  • "How Asia, Once a Vaccination Laggard, Is Revving Up Inoculations", Sui-Lee Wee, Damien Cave and Ben Dooley, NY Times, 9/30/21   
  • New Zealand, "Battling Delta, New Zealand Abandons Its Zero-Covid Ambitions", Natasha Frost, NY Times, 10/4/21  
  • Great Britain, "British government’s early pandemic response was a historic public health failure, lawmakers say", Annabelle Timsit, Washington Post, 10/12/21   
  • Great Britain, "Rise in Cases and Deaths Tests Britain’s Gamble on Few Virus Restrictions", Mark Landler and Stephen Castle, NY Times, 10/21/21   
  • China, "Near-Daily Covid Tests, Sleeping in Classrooms: Life in Covid-Zero China", Vivian Wang and Joy Dong, NY Times, 11/5/21 
  • Europe, "Europe Toughens Rules for Unvaccinated as Fourth Covid Wave Swells", Jason Horowitz, NY Times, 11/16/21 
  • Austria, "Austria announces a lockdown and vaccination mandate for all.", Christopher F. Schuetze and Elian Peltier, NY Times, 11/19/21 
  • Europe, "‘Vaccinated, Recovered or Dead’: Europe Fights Covid Wave — and Itself", Steven Erlanger, NY Times, 11/22/21 
  • United Kingdom, "A Claim of Herd Immunity Reignites Debate Over U.K. Covid Policy", Stephen Castle and Mark Landler, NY Times, 11/24/21  
U.S. response to coronavirus
  • "Interim Public Health Recommendations for Fully Vaccinated People", CDC, 7/28/21
  • "Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Including COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections, Associated with Large Public Gatherings — Barnstable County, Massachusetts, July 2021", CDC, 7/30/21       
  • "Vaccine Effectiveness Against Infection May Wane, C.D.C. Studies Find", Apoorva Mandavilli, NY Times, 8/18/21
  • "F.D.A. Fully Approves Pfizer-BioNTech’s Vaccine, a First for a Covid-19 Shot", Sharon LaFraniere and Noah Weiland, NY Times, 8/23/21 
  • "Two Top F.D.A. Vaccine Regulators Are Set to Depart During a Crucial Period", Noah Weiland and Sharon LaFraniere, NY Times, 8/31/21 
  • "Biden Mandates Vaccines for Workers, Saying, ‘Our Patience Is Wearing Thin’", Katie Rogers and Sheryl Gay Stolberg, NY Times, 9/9/11 ... "Biden’s Bet on Vaccine Mandates", NY Times "The Daily (podcast)", 9/13/21    
  • "C.D.C. Chief Overrules Agency Panel and Recommends Pfizer-BioNTech Boosters for Workers at Risk", Apoorva Mandavilli and Benjamin Mueller, NY Times, 9/24/21   
  • "CDC says it’s ‘urgent’ pregnant women get vaccinated", Bryan Pietsch and Adela Suliman, Washington Post, 9/30/21  
  •  "C.D.C. Recommends Covid Booster Shots for Millions of Americans", Apoorva Mandavilli, NY Times, 10/22/21   
  • "FDA delays decision on Moderna coronavirus vaccine for adolescents to evaluate myocarditis risk, company says", Laurie McGinley, Washington Post, 10/31/21 
  • "C.D.C. Recommends Covid Vaccine for Younger Children", Apoorva Mandavilli, NY Times, 11/2/21 
  • "White House Plans Major Expansion of Covid Vaccine Production", Sheryl Gay Stolberg, NY Times, 11/17/21 
  • "C.D.C. Endorses Covid Vaccine Booster Shots for All Adults", Apoorva Mandavilli, NY Times, 11/20/21 
F. U.S. context
  • "After a Steep Plunge in Virus Cases, Every State Is Seeing an Uptick", Mitch Smith and Julie Bosman, NY Times, 7/16/21
  • "Vaccinated people are ready for normalcy — and angry at the unvaccinated getting in their way", Marisa Iati, Washington Post, 7/31/21
  • "The surge in coronavirus cases seems to be spurring more vaccinations", Philip Bump, Washington Post, 8/2/21 
  • "As Covid Surges in Florida, DeSantis Refuses to Change Course", Patricia Mazzei, NY Tmes, 8/6/21 
  • "The Kindergarten Exodus", Dana Goldstein and Alicia Parlapiano, NY Times, 8/7/21 
  • "‘Act now’ on global vaccines to stop more-dangerous variants, experts warn Biden", Dan Diamond and Yasmeen Abutaleb, Washington Post, 8/10/21  
  • "Why Only 28 Percent of Young Black New Yorkers Are Vaccinated", Joseph Goldstein and Matthew Sedacca, NY Times, 8/12/21  
  • "Many Older Americans Still Aren’t Vaccinated, Making the Delta Wave Deadlier", Josh Holder and Amy Schoenfeld Walker, NY Times, 8/24/21 
  • "Red Covid", David Leonhardt, NY Times, 9/27/21    
  • "U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Surpasses 700,000 Despite Wide Availability of Vaccines", Julie Bosman and Lauren Leatherby, NY Times, 10/1/21     
  • "Covid Shots Are a Go for Children, but Parents Are Reluctant to Consent", Jan Hoffman, NY Times, 10/30/21
  • "Coronavirus infections rise in northern states, Mountain West, as holidays near", Carolyn Y. Johnson, Joel Achenbach and Jacqueline Dupree, Washington Post, 11/11/21 
  • "Appeals Court Extends Block on Biden’s Vaccine Mandate for Employers", Charlie Savage, NY Times, 11/12/21 
  • "Campuses Battle Severe Flu Outbreaks", Emma Whitford, Inside Higher Ed, 11/17/21 ... Note: Is this the first sign of the dreaded "double whammy" = flu +White House Plans Major Expansion of Covid Vaccine Production???
G. Mandates (U.S.)
  • "Who Can Make You Get a Covid Vaccine?", Giulia Heyward, NY Times, 8/3/21 
  • "After Months of Avoiding the Vaccine Issue, Companies Begin to Mandate", Michael Corkery, Lauren Hirsch, Brooks Barnes and Kellen Browning,  NY Times, 8/4/21
  • "California orders all teachers to be vaccinated or face regular testing.", Jill Cowan, NY Times, 8/12/21  
  • "‘Mandates Are Working’: Employer Ultimatums Lift Vaccination Rates, So Far", Shawn Hubler, NY Times, 9/30/21  
  • "California to Mandate Covid-19 Vaccines for All Students as Soon as Next Fall", Shawn Hubler, NY Times, 10/1/21 
  • "New York City mandates vaccines for all city workers, with no testing option.", Emma G. Fitzsimmons, Azi Paybarah, Sharon Otterman and Joseph Goldstein, NY Times, 10/20/21   
  • "As G.O.P. Fights Mask and Vaccine Mandates, Florida Takes the Lead", Patricia Mazzei, NY Times, 11/18/21 
  • "Why Retailers Are Fighting a Vaccine Mandate Before the Holidays", Lauren Hirsch and Sapna Maheshwari, NY Times, 11/25/21 
H. Treatments, vaccines, testing, tracing, variants
  • "Monoclonal antibodies are free and effective against covid-19, but few people are getting them", Lenny Bernstein and Laurie McGinley, Washington Post, 8/20/21 
  • "New data confirm Covid vaccines provide strong protection against hospitalization.", Emily Anthes, NY Times, 8/31/21
  • "How at-home coronavirus testing is becoming part of Biden’s plan for managing the pandemic", Derek Hawkins and Fenit Nirappil, Washington Post, 9/12/21     
  • "Merck Says It Has the First Antiviral Pill Found to Be Effective Against Covid", Rebecca Robbins, NY Times, 10/1/21 
  • "Vaccination could have prevented 90,000 deaths over four months, study say", NY Times, 10/13/21 
  • "Will New Covid Treatments Be as Elusive for Poor Countries as Vaccines?", Stephanie Nolen, NY Times, 10/17/21  
  • "Are Vaccine Boosters Widely Needed? Some Federal Advisers Have Misgivings.", Apoorva Mandavilli, NY Times, 10/25/21  
  • "Merck Will Share Formula for Its Covid Pill With Poor Countries", Stephanie Nolen, NY Times, 10/27/21  
  • "Antidepressant Fluvoxamine Significantly Reduces Covid-19 Hospitalization", Sarah Toy, Wall Street Journal, 10/28/21  
  • "Covid Shots Are a Go for Children, but Parents Are Reluctant to Consent", Jan Hoffman, NY Times, 10/30/21 
  • "Pfizer Says Its Antiviral Pill Is Highly Effective in Treating Covid", Rebecca Robbins, NY Times, 11/5/21 
  • "Moderna and U.S. at Odds Over Vaccine Patent Rights", Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Rebecca Robbins, NY Times, 11/9/21 
  • "What We Know So Far About Waning Vaccine Effectiveness", Amy Schoenfeld Walker and Josh Holder, NY Times, 11/11/21 
  • "Pfizer Will Allow Its Covid Pill to Be Made and Sold Cheaply in Poor Countries", Stephanie Nolen and Rebecca Robbins, NY Times, 11/16/21 
  • "Pfizer Submits Covid-19 Pill for FDA Authorization", Jared S. Hopkins, 
    Street Journal, 11/16/21      
I. Notable opinions and long reads 
  • World, "How Nations Are Learning to ‘Let It Go’ and Live With Covid", Sui-Lee Wee, NY Times, 7/21/21
  • "Covid Misinformation Comes From the Top, Too", Bret Stephens, NY Times, 7/27/21 
  • "What Went Wrong With the Pandemic in Florida", Patricia Mazzei, Benjamin Mueller and Robert Gebeloff, NY Times, 8/28/21
  • "The Long History of Vaccine Mandates in America", David Oshinsky, Wall Street Journal,  9/21/21 
  • "We Have Gone Badly Off Track in the Global Covid Fight", Jeneen Interlandi, NY Times, 9/22/21 
  • "Rapid Tests Are the Answer to Living With Covid-19", Michael J. Mina and Steven Phillips, NY Times, 10/1/21  

  • "A scientific hunch. Then silence. Until the world needed a lifesaving vaccine.", Carolyn Y. Johnson, Washington Post, 10/1/21 ... The developers of the mRNA approach to vaccines are probable contenders for the Nobel Prize ... Here's another article that discusses the developers -- "Covid Vaccine Pioneers and Others Win 2021 Lasker Awards in Medicine", Gina Kolata, NY Times, 9/28/21  

  • "The Unvaccinated May Not Be Who You Think", Zeynep Tufekci, NY Times, 10/15/21  
  • "Past Pandemics Remind Us Covid Will Be an Era, Not a Crisis That Fades", Gina Kolata, NY Times, 10/14/21 
  • "Why Public Health Faces a Crisis Across the U.S.", Mike Baker and Danielle Ivory, NY Times, 10/18/21  
  • "The coronavirus is still mutating. But will that matter? ‘We need to keep the respect for this virus.’", Joel Achenbach, Ben Guarino and Aaron Steckelberg , Washington Post, 10/18/21
  • "Here’s Why Developing Countries Can Make mRNA Covid Vaccines", Stephanie Nolen, NY Times, 10/22/21
  • "How Will We Live if Covid Is Here to Stay?", Katherine Eban, NY Times, 10/27/21   
J. Hindsight ... What really happened, why, and when should we have known it ...
  • "The Long-Term Safety Argument over COVID-19 Vaccines", Andrew L. Croxford, Boston Review, 9/14/21 

  • "Show Me the Data!", Zeynep Tufekci, NY Times, 8/27/21
    Editor's note -- This op ed captures the essence of the CDC's failure to provide consistent guidance. The CDC does not collect the kinds of systematic data required to understand what's really happening with regards to many important challenges. Non-systematic data is only one or two steps above anecdotes. When the CDC gathers different non-systematic data, the CDC changes its guidance; but the unknown, underlying causal relationships may not have changed. As has been wisely said: "The plural of anecdote is not data" ... and neither is the plural of non-systematic data 

  • "COVID proved the CDC is broken. Can it be fixed?", Jeneen Interland, NY Times, 6/16/21
    ... Editor's comment -- This is a "must skim" article. It's a "TLDR" for most folks ("Too long; didn't read"), but its core message must be grasped by anyone who wants to understand why the U.S. continues to botch its handling of the pandemic so badly. Yes, President Trump bears ultimate responsibility for what happened in 2020; but this article presents a depressing, rambling look inside an agency that is underfunded and in a state of permanent disarray. If President Biden doesn't reorganize this crucial agency immediately, it will be his turn to bear ultimate responsibility for its future failures. For additional comments on this blog, see "An open letter to President Biden regarding the critical need to reorganize the CDC immediately")

  • "Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe", Apoorva Mandavilli, NY Times, 5/3/21 

  • Comprehensive reviews of scientific research on face masks -- "Face masks: what the data say", Lynne Peeples, Nature, 10/6/20 ... and the more recent "An evidence review of face masks against COVID-19", Jeremy Howard et al., PNAS, 1/28/21

  • "The CDC Waited 'Its Entire Existence for this Moment.' What Went Wrong", Eric Lipton, Abby Goodnough, Michael D. Shear, Megan Twohey, Apoorva Mandavilli, Sheri Fink and Mark Walker, NY Times, 6/3/20
    ... Editor's comment -- Similar conclusions were drawn by a subsequent note on this blog that also considered President Trump's task force ... "Where do we go from here?", 8/9/20

  • A Striking Disconnect on the Virus: Economic Pain With Little Illness", Michael H. Keller, Steve Eder and Karl Russell, NY Times, 6/6/20

  • "‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’", Alexis C. Madrigal and Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic, 5/21/20

  • Imperial College (London) ... Report 9  (4/16/20)(Note: This link is to the summary of the report on the model's projections. Readers should click the download link on the summary to obtain a copy of the full report. This is the report that caused the UK to drastically increase its mitigation efforts)

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