subvarCOVID-19

Last update: Wednesday 9/15/22
This edition of our weekly guide provides an evolving framework for coping with the coronavirus beginning with the emergence of Omicron sub-variants in April 2022. Previous editions include:
-- omicronCOVID-19 covered Omicron from late November 2021 through March 2022
-- deltaCOVID-19 covered Delta vs mandates from July 2021 to November 2021.
-- vacCOVID-19 covered Biden's vaccinations from late December 2020 to June 2021
-- oldCOVID-19 covered February 2020 through early December 2020

Alerts about top stories are posted on the blog's @neoskeptics Twitter account on Sundays and Mondays; updates are posted throughout the week.

... under continuing reconstruction ...

Top stories 
  • "The trouble with viewing 9/11 and the pandemic through a wartime lens", Lila Nordstrom and Sarah Senk, Washington Post, 9/9/22 *** 
  • China, "China’s Public Puts on a Show of Zero Covid for an Audience of One", Li Yuan, NY Times, 9/9/22 *** 

Ten sections are divided into two groups: Dashboard and Publications.

Dashboard (sections A, B, and C) contains links to data pages on the Web that include the tables, maps, and charts most frequently cited by the publications in the second part of the guide. Readers who encounter references to COVID-19 data in a publication can quickly confirm (or refute) the citations by clicking appropriate links in the dashboard to the sources of the data.

Publications (sections D through J) contains links to reports, news articles, and opinions.  New links are added every day. Recent links are red; older links are blue. Most of the links in the dashboard sections are always red because they point to Web pages that are updated frequently by their editors, sometimes every day.

Older items in the publication sections whose content has been overcome by events are deleted. This enables the overall size of the publications sections to remain more or less the same as newer links are added. However enough older articles remain so that readers can always get a quick sense of where we are and how we got here by skimming the titles of the articles in chronological order.

A. Info | B. Mods | C. Trackers | D. World | E. U.S response | F. Context | G. Mandates | H. TreatVax | I. Opinions | J. Hindsight

... Dashboard ... 

A. Comprehensive information resources 
B. Medical impact models
  • Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluaton (IHME) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), COVID-19, 9/9/22 ... Editor's note 1:  IHME displays "reported deat
  • hs" and "excess deaths" since early May 2021. IHME excess deaths from COVID for every country are higher than reported deaths, about 50 percent higher for the U.S. This methodology explained HERE
  • Midas, COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub
C. Focused Trackers ... Infections, Hospitalizations, Deaths, & Vaccines

... Publications ...

D. Exit strategies from the pandemic outside the U.S.
  • "China’s economy pays a price as lockdowns restrict nearly a third of its population.", Alexandra Stevenson, NY Times, 4/14/22  
  • North Korea, " 'North Korea Says Its Covid Outbreak Is Spreading Fast", Choe Sang-Hun, NY Times, 5/14/22  
  • China, "Relief, Reunions and Some Anxiety as Shanghai (Mostly) Reopens",  Chris Buckley, NY Times, 6/1/22  
  • World, "Covid falls off world leaders’ agenda despite remaining threat from the virus", Shannon Pettypiece, NBC, 6/28/22 

  • China, "China’s economic growth slows to 0.4%, weakest in two years", Eva Dou, Washington Post, 7/16/22 
  • Australia, "Record number of COVID-hit Australians in hospital as Omicron surges", Renju Jose, Reuters, 7/25/22
  • England, "Millions in England to be invited for Covid booster from Monday", The Guardian, 9/3/22  
  • China, "As China Imposes More Covid Lockdowns, ‘Everyone Is Scared’", Vivian Wang, NY Times, 9/5/22  

  • China, "China’s ‘Zero Covid’ Bind: No Easy Way Out Despite the Cost", Vivian Wang, NY Times, 9/7/22 
  • China, "China’s Public Puts on a Show of Zero Covid for an Audience of One", Li Yuan, NY Times, 9/9/22 *** 
E. U.S. response to coronavirus 
  • "Today, I announced a one-stop to get any and everything you need to deal with COVID ... Go to COVID.gov ... All the information is there.", @POTUS, 3/30/22 
  • "One-stop Test to Treat", HHS, 4/5/22 ... Note: This announcement signifies that the "Test to Treat" that President Biden announced in his "National COVID-⁠19 Preparedness Plan" is now operational  
  • "The Coronavirus Has Infected More Than Half of Americans, the C.D.C. Reports", Apoorva Mandavilli, NY Times, 4/27/22 
  • "C.D.C. Urges Adults 50 and Older to Get Second Booster Shot", Sharon LaFraniere, NY Times, 5/20/22
           
  • "Coronavirus Updates: C.D.C. Recommends 2 Covid Vaccines for Very Young Children", Maham Javaid NY Times, 6/18/22 
  • "Antiviral drugs for Covid are inequitably prescribed, a C.D.C. study finds.", Roni Caryn Rabin, NY Times, 6/21/22  
  • "The pandemic isn’t over, but most U.S. states formally say that it’s no longer a health emergency.", Adeel Hassan, NY Times, 7/22/22    
  • "CDC streamlines COVID-19 guidance to help the public better protect themselves and understand their risk", CDC, 8/11/22  

  • "At-Home COVID-19 Antigen Tests-Take Steps to Reduce Your Risk of False Negative", FDA, 8/11/22  
  • "CDC, under fire, lays out plan to become more nimble and accountable", Lena H. Sun and Dan Diamond, Washington Post, 8/17/22 
  • "U.S. Plans to Shift Bill for Covid Shots and Treatments to Insurers, Patients", Stephanie Armour, Wall Street Journal, 8/18/22 
  • "F.D.A. Authorizes Updated Covid Booster Shots Targeting Omicron Subvariants", Noah Weiland and Sharon LaFraniere, NY Times, 8/31/22
     
  • "CDC recommends updated Covid-19 boosters", Helen Branswell, STAT, 9/1/22 
  • "Press Briefing by White House COVID-⁠19 Response Team and Public Health Officials", The Whitehouse, 9/6/22   

F. U.S. context 
  • "Covid and Diabetes, Colliding in a Public Health Train Wreck",  Andrew Jacobs, NY Times, 4/3/22   
  • "U.S. no longer in ‘full-blown’ pandemic phase, Fauci says", Joel Achenbach and Bryan Pietsch, Washington Post, 4/27/22   
  • "During the Omicron Wave, Death Rates Soared for Older People", Benjamin Mueller and Eleanor Lutz, NY Times, 5/31/22
  • "One million COVID deaths. Here's how we went from zero to 'there' ", Neoskeptics, 5/26/22

  • "Despite Another Covid Surge, Deaths Stay Near Lows", Benjamin Mueller, NY Times, 6/20/22 
  • "Covid Rises Across U.S. Amid Muted Warnings and Murky Data", Julie Bosman, Thomas Fuller and Edgar Sandoval, NY Times, 7/18/22 
  • "Covid’s risks are concentrated among Americans of Biden’s age.", Benjamin Mueller, NY Times, 7/21/22
  • "Few Parents Intend to Have Very Young Children Vaccinated Against Covid", Jan Hoffman, NY Times, 7/26/22  

  • "In Rural America, Covid Hits Black and Hispanic People Hardest", Benjamin Mueller, NY Times, 7/28/22  
  • "The Pandemic Erased Two Decades of Progress in Math and Reading", Sarah Mervosh, NY Times, 9/1/22 
  • "Covid forecast: Major fall surge unlikely, but variants are a wild card", Joel Achenbach and Lena H. Sun , Washington Post, 9/3/22   
G. Mandates (U.S.) 
  • "Federal Judge Strikes Down Mask Mandate for Planes and Public Transit", Charlie Savage and Heather Murphy, NY Times, 4/18/22  
  • "For Airlines, the Mask Mandate Couldn’t End Soon Enough", Niraj Chokshi and Heather Murphy, NY Times, 4/19/22
  • "Biden says Americans should decide for themselves if they want to wear masks on public transportation.", Katie Rogers, NY Times, 4/19/22  
  • "Analysis: The U.S. Appealed to Reinstate Masks. But Is It Seeking to Win?", Charlie Savage and Sharon LaFraniere, NY Times, 4/22/22 

  • "Why Adams Is Rejecting Mask Mandates as Covid Cases Rise in New York", Emma G. Fitzsimmons, NY Times, 5/19/22  
  • "Philadelphia reinstates a mask mandate in schools.", Juston Jones, NY Times, 5/23/22 
  • "Hawaii, the last state with an indoor mask mandate for public schools, will make masks optional.", Adeel Hassan, NY Times, 7/13/22
  • "Mask Mandates Return to Some California Universities", Liam Knox, Inside Higher Ed, 7/26/22 

  • "Many colleges ease mask rules in third year of coronavirus pandemic", Nick Anderson, Washington Post, 8/20/22
  • "Fall’s Mask Mandate Outlook", Colleen Flaherty, Inside Higher Ed, 8/29/22
H. Treatments, vaccines, boosters, testing, tracing, variants 
  • "The pandemic’s true health cost: how much of our lives has COVID stolen?", Holly Else, Nature, 5/18/22 
  • "As reports of ‘Paxlovid rebound’ increase, Covid researchers scramble for answers", Jason Mast, STAT, 5/24/22   
  • "The Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 have together become dominant in the U.S., the C.D.C. estimates.", Adeel Hassan, NY Times, 6/28/22   
  • "Many people are still shielding from COVID – and our research suggests their mental health is getting worse", Jo Daniels, The Conversation, 7/6/22 

  • "As BA.5 becomes dominant among new U.S. cases, reduced state reporting is blurring the real-time look at the virus.", Adeel Hassan and Sarah Cahalan, NY Times, 7/7/22
  • "As new variant spreads, a crucial drug to protect the most vulnerable goes vastly underused", Jason Mast, STAT, 7/22/22 
  • "Pfizer seeks authorization for updated Covid vaccine, without fresh clinical trial data", Matthew Herper, STAT, 8/22/22  
  • "Scientists are racing to develop home tests that measure protection against Covid-19", Edward Chen, STAT, 8/23/22  

  • "Your first brush with coronavirus could affect how a fall booster works", Carolyn Y. Johnson, Washington Post, 8/23/22 
  • "Fall Vaccination Campaign Will Bring New Shots, Worse Access", Benjamin Mueller, NY Times, 8/28/22  
  • "Scientists Discovered an Antibody That Can Take Out All COVID-19 Variants", Korin Miller, Prevention, 9/6/22 
  • "What scientists have learnt from COVID lockdowns", Dyani Lewis, Nature, 9/8/22  
I. Notable opinions and long reads     
  • "How America Lost One Million People", Jeremy White, Amy Harmon, Danielle Ivory, Lauren Leatherby, Albert Sun and Sarah Almukhtar, NY Times, 5/13/22 
  • "How Australia Saved Thousands of Lives While Covid Killed a Million Americans", Damien Cave, NY Times, 5/16/22 
  • "You Are Going to Get COVID Again … And Again … And Again", Katherine J. Wu, The Alantic, 5/27/22  
  • "Citing a disastrous pandemic response, an expert panel calls for an overhaul of the U.S. public health system.", Sheryl Gay Stolberg. NY Times, 6/21/22 

  • "Endemic Covid-19 Looks Pretty Brutal", David Wallace-Wells, NY Times, 7/22/22
  • "Drug companies could create new drugs to protect the Covid vulnerable. Why aren’t they?", Jason Mast, STAT, 7/29/22
  • "Enduring colonialism has made it harder to end the COVID-19 pandemic", Monica Sanchez-Flores, The Conversation, 8/11/22 
  • "Sleepwalking toward Covid disaster" Bruce Mirken, 48Hills, 8/10/22 

  • "The Odds of Getting COVID From Your Housemate Are ‘About a Coin Flip’", Yasmin Tayag, The Atlantic, 8/15/22  
  • "A third Covid autumn is upon us. Here’s a look at where we stand",  J. Emory Parker and Andrew Joseph, STAT, 9/1/22 
  • "A Q&A with WHO’s Maria Van Kerkhove on Covid — and fatigue over the pandemic", Helen Branswell, STAT, 9/1/22  
  • "The trouble with viewing 9/11 and the pandemic through a wartime lens", Lila Nordstrom and Sarah Senk, Washington Post, 9/9/22 *** 
J. Hindsight ... What really happened, why, and when should we have known it ...
  • "How Millions of Lives Might Have Been Saved From Covid-19", Zeynep Tufekci, NY Times, 3/11/22 

  • "The Long-Term Safety Argument over COVID-19 Vaccines", Andrew L. Croxford, Boston Review, 9/14/21 

  • "Show Me the Data!", Zeynep Tufekci, NY Times, 8/27/21
    Editor's note -- This op ed captures the essence of the CDC's failure to provide consistent guidance. The CDC does not collect the kinds of systematic data required to understand what's really happening with regards to many important challenges. Non-systematic data is only one or two steps above anecdotes. When the CDC gathers different non-systematic data, the CDC changes its guidance; but the unknown, underlying causal relationships may not have changed. As has been wisely said: "The plural of anecdote is not data" ... and neither is the plural of non-systematic data 

  • "COVID proved the CDC is broken. Can it be fixed?", Jeneen Interland, NY Times, 6/16/21
    ... Editor's comment -- This is a "must skim" article. It's a "TLDR" for most folks ("Too long; didn't read"), but its core message must be grasped by anyone who wants to understand why the U.S. continues to botch its handling of the pandemic so badly. Yes, President Trump bears ultimate responsibility for what happened in 2020; but this article presents a depressing, rambling look inside an agency that is underfunded and in a state of permanent disarray. If President Biden doesn't reorganize this crucial agency immediately, it will be his turn to bear ultimate responsibility for its future failures. For additional comments on this blog, see "An open letter to President Biden regarding the critical need to reorganize the CDC immediately")

  • "Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe", Apoorva Mandavilli, NY Times, 5/3/21 

  • Comprehensive reviews of scientific research on face masks -- "Face masks: what the data say", Lynne Peeples, Nature, 10/6/20 ... and the more recent "An evidence review of face masks against COVID-19", Jeremy Howard et al., PNAS, 1/28/21

  • "The CDC Waited 'Its Entire Existence for this Moment.' What Went Wrong", Eric Lipton, Abby Goodnough, Michael D. Shear, Megan Twohey, Apoorva Mandavilli, Sheri Fink and Mark Walker, NY Times, 6/3/20
    ... Editor's comment -- Similar conclusions were drawn by a subsequent note on this blog that also considered President Trump's task force ... "Where do we go from here?", 8/9/20

  • A Striking Disconnect on the Virus: Economic Pain With Little Illness", Michael H. Keller, Steve Eder and Karl Russell, NY Times, 6/6/20

  • "‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’", Alexis C. Madrigal and Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic, 5/21/20

  • Imperial College (London) ... Report 9  (4/16/20)
    Note: This link is to the summary of the report on the model's projections. Readers should click the download link on the summary to obtain a copy of the full report. This is the report that caused the UK to drastically increase its mitigation efforts

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